Goal 8: Decent work & economic growth

The Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) provides computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling and analysis of the factors for sustainable economic growth, to support the evidence base for public policy and improve economic decision-making, both in Australia and internationally.

The CoPS team published 21 peer-reviewed papers and book chapters and engaged in public debate addressing issues of policy change, investment and economic growth which encompassed COVID-19 short-term impacts and longer-term implications of changes to economies, climate change and recovery from the Australian bushfires. For example, the CoPS researchers modelled The Effects of Financial Decoupling of the U.S. and China: Simulations with a Global Financial CGE Model and The economic effects of the U.S.-China trade war to understand the implications of a distancing between the two nations; and to advance the utility of economic models Creating a Disaggregated CGE Model for Trade Policy Analysis: GTAP-MVH and Developing a DSGE Consumption Function for a CGE Model.

The Mitchell Institute released a policy report Averting an Escalating Labour Market Crisis for Young People in Australia: A Proposed National Job Cadet Program supported by the national employer association Ai Group, arguing that Australia should extend apprenticeship schemes into new occupational area to provide greater employment opportunities for young people.

The Mitchell Institute investigated the Impact of Coronavirus on Apprentices and Trainees, warning that government funding was already at its lowest levels since 2011 and that youth unemployment will jump with an estimated drop of 130,000 or 30% in the number of apprenticeships and traineeships offered over two years.

The West of Melbourne Economic Development Alliance (WoMEDA) was established by Victoria University to bring together local Councils and businesses to develop an economic strategy for the region. WoMEDA meets regularly to discuss economic analysis provided by Victoria University, opportunities for economic advancement and to develop strategy. In its fifth landmark report, WoMEDA advances the booming area of Werribee, as a logical location to develop a new satellite city in Melbourne’s west.

Mitchell Institute research for the Federal Department for Education, Skills and Training (now the Department of Education) shows work experience while studying is associated with better labour outcomes at age 25. The Industry Experiences and Their Role in Education to Work Transitions  report was commissioned as part of the Review of University-Industry Collaboration in Teaching and Learning. While higher education is still associated with strong employment outcomes at age 25, apprentices and trainees are likely to earn more, have higher rates of full-time employment, and report higher levels of job satisfaction. There are increasing levels of part-time work among young people at age 25 and falling levels of wage growth over time.

Adjunct Professor Peter Dawkins of the Mitchell Institute and Professor Martin Bean delivered the Review of University-Industry Collaboration in Teaching and Learning, commissioned by the Federal Department for Education, Skills and Training (now the Department of Education). Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008, young people have experienced deteriorating labour market outcomes, and are increasingly trapped in under-employment and lower skilled occupations. The Review recommended seven short-term actions government, higher education providers and industry can take to promote greater collaboration across the sector. 

CoPS modelling and analysis work, software and training was provided to organisations across 36 countries, including Australian state and federal government agencies, finance ministries and central banks from around the world and international organisations like the UNDP and ILO. 

CoPS made theoretical and practical contributions to policy-oriented large-scale economic modelling through:

• advancing the representation of the economic characteristics of pandemics within the detailed economy-wide framework
• demonstrating how financial assets and liabilities can be integrated into a global real-side economic model and evaluated the costs and benefits of financial and trade decoupling between the U.S. and China
• making improvements to the speed and function of GEMPACK software, used by thousands of analysts in the discipline of policy modelling around the world
• demonstrating how details of Australia’s indirect and property tax systems can be represented in a CGE framework
• developing global modelling tools encompassing income distribution, household disaggregation, and inking with ecological, biophysical or agricultural models. 

CoPS research directly contributed to public policy formulation in Australia with:

• CoPS tax modelling used for the NSW Budget 2020/21 Consultation Paper on tax reform.
• CoPS’ work on the economics of Tasmania’s zero emissions policy was quoted in Tasmanian Government media releases and by the Tasmanian Premier in support of the State Government’s new climate policy targets.
• The tabling in Victorian parliament of Victoria’s Infrastructure Strategy 2021 – 2051 for which CoPS provided the integrated transport and land use modelling to inform the development of Victoria’s infrastructure.

CoPS implemented a series of modelling innovations across their regional and global models to provide further insights and more detailed analysis of the likely economic impacts and interlinkages between factors of policy changes and social and environmental events. For example, Covid-19 modelling for the U.S. and Australia led to further refinements for dynamic quarterly periodicity; excess capacity; risk aversion behavior; modelling economic restrictions; supply chain and labour supply disruptions; and working from home. In addition, CoPS developed their economic modelling software, with a beta test of GEMPACK for use in the Centre and an upgrade for CHINAGEM-Energy, for energy models in China, and held a modelling course at the University of International Business and Economics.

Careers Services offers students many opportunities to develop professional skills including:

• work-based practice hours
• placements with respected organisations that partner with VU
• hands-on learning in creative studios and high-tech labs.