The TERM-type model has been used to analyse the direct and indirect impacts of many different types of economic shocks.

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TERM model projects

  • Changes in the availability of agricultural land
  • Changes in agriculture productivity due to climate change

  • Change in productivity of physical capital (e.g. due to quality improvement in machines and equipment, or changes in regulation of store-opening hours)
  • Changes in labour productivity due to improved training
  • Changes in productive capacity within an industry in a given region (e.g. plant expansion, plant closure, business interruptions)

  • Investment in a new road or rail link
  • A newly-discovered mine
  • Hosting a major international sporting event (e.g. the Olympic Games)

  • Changes in government competition policies that may cause firms to operate more efficiently
  • Changes in the rate of commodity taxes
  • Changes in wage regulation, health and safety regulations, compensating wage differentials due to amenity or transport costs
  • Changes in road use charging regimes
  • Government targeted health or education programs

  • Changes in household confidence or demographic factors affecting their consumption level
  • Changes in population caused by demographic changes (e.g. immigration, changes in birth rates and death rates)
  • Changes in household tastes toward a commodity in a region, such as a successful marketing campaign convincing households to purchase more tourism services

  • Changes in investors’ confidence or perceived or actual riskiness of a region
  • Changes in national employment, due to changes in:
    • international migration
    • hours worked per worker
    • labour force participation
    • the natural rate of unemployment

  • Appreciation or depreciation of the domestic currency
  • Changes in commodity import prices due to:
    • changes in world commodity prices; or
    • changes in export taxes in other countries.
  • Changes in export demand for a commodity due to:
    • economic growth in other countries;
    • the discovery of a new market; or
    • a new trade agreement which reduces barriers of trade in other countries.
  • A disease outbreak or other natural event (e.g. drought, flood, climate change, agricultural diseases)

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